The Daan By-Election: A Post-Mortem

The Daan By-Election: A Post-Mortem
China Post Editorial
by Bevin Chu
April 7, 2009

Now that the dust from the Daan District Legislative by-election has settled, it's time for a little Monday morning quarterbacking.

The outcome of the Daan District by-election has three meanings, one for each the three major contenders: the KMT, the DPP, and the New Party.

For the KMT the Daan District by-election was a stern warning from Pan Blue core voters: "Don't take us for granted, or else!" Voters in the Daan District have the highest income and educational levels on Taiwan. Not surprisingly Daan District voters comprise the Bluest constituency on the island.

These voters had two ways of delivering their ultimatum to the KMT. The first was to vote for Yao Li-ming, the independent candidate sponsored by the New Party. The second was to boycott the election altogether.

As the record low 39% turnout attests, large numbers of Pan Blue voters chose the second way. They feared that if they voted for Yao Li-ming they might split the Pan Blue vote and allow DPP candidate Chou Po-ya to squeak in. Therefore they boycotted the election altogether. They calculated that by doing so they could deny the DPP a victory but still give the KMT the fright it needed.

The first way would have been better. Voting for Yao Li-ming would have sent a clearer, less equivocal message to the KMT. It would have dropped a catfish into a tank full of sardines. It would have sicced a gadfly on the KMT legislative caucus, to pester them into doing the right thing for the next three years.

But "qi Chiang boa Yao" (dumping Chiang and saving Yao) called for greater audacity than Pan Blue voters were able to summon. Having endured eight years of Pan Green misrule, Pan Blue voters are once bitten, twice shy. They chose to "qi Yao bao Chiang" (dump Yao and save Chiang) instead.

For the DPP, the Daan District by-election was also a warning: "Don't think we're going to vote for you just because we're unhappy with the KMT!" The warning was ignored. Instead, DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen spun the outcome of the Daan District by-election as "sui bai you rong" (honor in defeat). She tried to convince the public that the Green Camp gained ground at the expense of the Blue Camp in the Pan Blue Camp's most secure stronghold.

Nonsense. The vote counts show that the Green Camp did not gain ground at the expense of the Blue Camp. Daan District Blue Camp voters are even more disgusted with the DPP than they are with the KMT. The last thing they would do is transfer their votes to the Green Camp. The DPP's percentage of the votes cast rose only because Blue Camp voters stayed away from the polls altogether. In short, the DPP is even more resistant to learning its political lessons than the KMT.

For the idealistic Yao Li-ming and the New Party, Pan Blue voters' conservative voting strategy was deeply discouraging, but not entirely unanticipated. Yao and the NP felt they were doing the right thing. But they also knew they might be too far ahead of the curve. It would certainly not be the first time.

Pan Blue voters felt safe voting against the KMT candidate in the Miaoli County by-election because the DPP chose not to field a candidate at all. Pan Blue voters apparently did not feel safe voting against the KMT candidate in the Daan District by-election because the DPP chose to field Chou Po-ya. Chiang Nai-hsing should thank Chou Po-ya for his election "victory." Without the looming Green Camp threat, the Daan District by-election could have turned out very differently.

Did Pan Blue voters make the right choice? We will know soon enough. KMT Legislator Elect Chiang Nai-hsing and KMT Party Chairman Wu Po-hsiung have solemnly declared that they got the message, loud and clear, and have taken it to heart. Let's hope their declarations are not the pro forma lip-service we have heard a thousand times before.

If the KMT controlled legislature passes the Sunshine Laws Pan Blue voters were promised, undiluted, and the Ma administration flushes out the Augean Stables known as the Ministry of Education, then perhaps Pan Blue voters made the right choice. If the KMT legislature and the Ma presidency revert to doing nothing, as they have for the past year, then they didn't, and there will be hell to pay down the road.